The(G)Forum

zeromeier hat geschrieben: ↑20 Dez 2024 01:09 Mit wieviel gäld tradisch du, wenn mit dem eine deal dis läbe chöntsch finanziere?

thaeye hat geschrieben: ↑20 Dez 2024 07:08 eifach mal so als konträri meinig woni au mal igworfe han:

https://galgitron.net/Post/Bitcoins_Event_Horizon

thaeye hat geschrieben: ↑20 Dez 2024 07:08 eifach mal so als konträri meinig woni au mal igworfe han:

https://galgitron.net/Post/Bitcoins_Event_Horizon

So, I found this article online and despite the aggressive language, it has some valid points, I assume. So, I wonder, what is your assessment in regard of the validity of the article, especially in regard to the inevitable demise of bitcoin, because of the difficulty to update its software to make it safe from quantum computer attacks.
ChatGPT
The article you shared outlines the author’s belief in Bitcoin’s inevitable demise due to its vulnerability to quantum computing (QC) attacks, focusing particularly on the difficulty of implementing updates to Bitcoin's protocol to mitigate these risks. Let’s break this down:

Valid Points
Quantum Vulnerability:

Bitcoin uses the ECDSA secp256k1 algorithm for signing transactions, which is vulnerable to quantum attacks. Quantum computers can potentially calculate private keys from exposed public keys rapidly, posing a serious threat.
If quantum computers become capable of breaking ECDSA within the time constraints of blockchain operations (e.g., block times or transaction delays), they could exploit the network, stealing funds and undermining trust.
Difficulty in Upgrading Bitcoin:

Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes implementing major protocol changes difficult. Soft forks require near-universal adoption to ensure compatibility, and hard forks risk splitting the network.
Transitioning to quantum-resistant cryptography would necessitate a large-scale migration of all Bitcoin (UTXO) balances to new, secure addresses—requiring user awareness and action.
Market Confidence and Perception:

Even the perception of quantum threats could destabilize Bitcoin markets. Fear-driven selloffs could occur long before a quantum computer achieves the capability to attack Bitcoin effectively.
Counterarguments
Timeframe for Quantum Threats:

Quantum computing is still in its infancy, and practical QC systems capable of breaking ECC in real-world scenarios remain speculative. Estimates suggest decades before such capabilities are reached.
The author assumes rapid development akin to historical technological leaps (e.g., aviation to space exploration), but quantum development might not follow this trajectory due to unique engineering challenges.
Mitigation Strategies Exist:

Bitcoin developers and cryptographers are already researching quantum-resistant algorithms like lattice-based cryptography (e.g., Crystals-Dilithium). If implemented, such upgrades could secure the network before QC becomes a real threat.
Other cryptocurrencies and blockchains are exploring quantum resistance, suggesting viable paths forward for blockchain technology in general.
Blockchain Adoption Challenges Are Shared:

The challenges outlined (like migrating balances) apply to all first-generation blockchains, not just Bitcoin. This doesn’t necessarily lead to Bitcoin’s unique demise but rather a broader challenge for the entire blockchain ecosystem.
Critical Assessment
While the author raises some compelling technical and social points, the tone is excessively alarmist and assumes worst-case scenarios as inevitable. The challenges associated with QC vulnerability and Bitcoin’s decentralization are real, but the timeline and solutions are uncertain. The article discounts ongoing efforts in the broader blockchain and cryptographic communities to address these threats.

Conclusion: The author’s concerns are valid, particularly in emphasizing Bitcoin's technical hurdles and community dynamics. However, the conclusions about Bitcoin’s imminent demise and the irreparable nature of these challenges appear exaggerated. As QC technology progresses, the Bitcoin community's ability to respond with appropriate technological advancements will determine its fate.

Vyse hat geschrieben: ↑20 Dez 2024 13:59 Aktuell hani grad kei gueti/grossi Trading-Idee meh, höchschtens dä Retest vom BTC zw. 82K und 74K aber das gaht wahrschiinli no en Momänt. Evtl. gahts nomal Uufwärts, es Lower High und dänn nomal richtig abwärts, bevor dä letscht Teil vom Bullrun losgaht. Vermuete, falls so en tüüfe Retest gäbt, würs rächt es Geschnätzel werde mit grosse Wicks, i däm Fall dänn wohl eher konservativ DCA mit super low leverage anstatt snipe. Muen mal überlegge, nervt mich grad, han ich die bescht Gläggeheit vom Jahr versüümt, oh well.

Vyse hat geschrieben: ↑21 Dez 2024 12:09 Was meinsch genau? (Und was du und "stable" verstahsch, isch mier au nöd ganz klar, verwändisch au no hüüfig dä Begriff).

At a certain level, we all know the areas to do business. Sometimes you just have to stop the mental gymnastics and trade.

thaeye hat geschrieben: ↑08 Jan 2025 11:01 für was au, han en ek vo 8 dollar abetruckt, was söll ich da verchaufe?


Roboter gits jenstes, villi sind aber na venture capital und nöd a de börse.